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Enhanced Flight Vision Systems Today Into The Future

Part Two in a series looking at the status of Enhanced Flight Vision Systems (EFVS), which provide greater situation awareness and improved visual clarity for enhanced navigational safety and efficient operations.

Synthetic Vision

Synthetic vision guidance systems provide pilots with a synthesized, clear view of the terrain and navigational guidance, even when the view out the window is obscured by weather conditions or low light. Collins’ synthetic vision system provides ground navigation data for pilots landing at small airfields.

Thea Feyereisen, senior technical fellow at Aerospace Advanced Technology, Honeywell, Minneapolis, says Synthetic Vision Guidance System (SVGS) components include synthetic vision (terrain and obstacle database), high-integrity runway database, ownership position monitors and advanced symbology (i.e., HUD-like including flight path vector, speed deviation and acceleration cue) to enable the pilot lower than standard minimums.

“EFVS enhances this synthetic view with real-time images, giving pilots a complete view of their surroundings through the HUD in any operating environment,” Brown says. Collins Aerospace’s real-time 3-D terrain mapping creates precise virtual representations of the environment—such as terrain, obstacles, airports and runways—to provide a comprehensive picture of the pilot’s surroundings to enhance situational awareness.

“We’ve also developed Combined Vision Systems (CVS) which integrates SVS with Enhanced Vision Systems (EVS) and are visible on our high-definition Head-Up Displays (HUD),” Brown says. “CVS is available for a wide variety of aircraft, including those operating the Collins Compact HUD. These technologies seamlessly blend to provide a holistic view of the environment, high-fidelity flight information and a wider field of view to lessen pilot workload and improve critical decision making. When pilots see the Collins CVS, they are blown away by the quality of the imagery. The fidelity and detail provided are a game changer for pilots who need to operate in any environmental condition.”

SVGS capable aircraft can enable pilots to fly a special authorization Category I Instrument Landing System (CAT I ILS) to 150 feet vs 200 feet Decision Altitude/Decision Height (DA/DH). “In the future SVGS will enable lower minimums on unrestricted LPV approaches from 200 to 150 and reduce further the minimums on CAT I ILS from 200 to 100 (today is 150 feet) DA/DH,” Feyereisen says. “An SVGS approach extends the instrument segment, whereas and EFVS extends the visual segment of the approach. An aircraft equipped with SVGS can lower the altitude (e.g., detect at 150ft vs 200ft) from which the runway environment cues must be seen by the pilot with the EFVS sensor to transition to visual approach and landing.”

Both SVGS and EFVS aim to enhance situational awareness in low-visibility conditions, but their primary difference lies in the technology used and the operational credits they provide. Yahav contends, “SVGS provides limited operational credit in certain scenarios, while EFVS provides significantly more credit, deeming SVGS irrelevant when EFVS is installed. SVGS continue to be limited, requiring head-down operations to look at the graphical displays installed on the flight deck. We believe flying should be performed heads up, with pilots focused outside the cockpit on their surrounding environment.”

Artificial Intelligence and EFVS

Artificial intelligence (AI) is playing an increasingly beneficial role in EFVS during flight. According to Brown, “AI algorithms can process and enhance images, detect and recognize objects within the aircraft’s vicinity, and identify potential terrain and obstacle hazards.”

With obstacle recognition and detection, Feyereisen says, the SVS picture in general, is always going to be more consistent and “better looking” than the EFVS. “However, the SVS is not real time, so it does not detect a hazard that is not in its database, e.g., a moose that has stumbled onto the runway! MMWR have excellent all-weather penetration capabilities, but the image quality and update rate for a commercial system does not meet the required visual quality requirements to be equivalent to natural vision like today’s IR sensors.”

One concept being explored is leveraging AI for image/obstacle detection to confirm runway location and hazard detection to extend the capabilities of SVGS/SVS. Kumar believes the pilot gets to fly with the well-formed and useable SVS, but there if there is an issue with the navigation position or an unanticipated obstacle like a vehicle or animal on the runway, the pilot would maintain situational awareness equivalent to visual conditions.

“The fusion of different data modalities, i.e., radar, lidar, cameras, and real-time position and high integrity databases through machine learning and AI processing has made significant progresses toward autonomous vehicle operations in urban environment,” He says. “The advancement can potentially be leveraged into aviation domain for improving EFVS systems.”

Universal Avionics began incorporating artificial intelligence with Aperture long before the AI revolution. A lot of information is captured from video sources, not all of which can be processed by the human brain in real time to make proactive decisions quickly. “We are leveraging AI to better understand the video captured from our enhanced vision system,” Yahav says. “This is similar to the automotive industry’s autopilot features, which rely on visual information captured by cameras and sensors to navigate the vehicle. Universal’s Aperture will be the first product to bring this sensor-fusion technology to aviation, first certified last year and already being developed in OEM solutions by our customers.”

EFVS Regulatory Updates

The FAA continues to define new standards for EFVS through their work with the RTCA SC-213 special committee. “Co-chaired by Universal Avionics and represented by Troy Niles, senior principal engineer for EFVS, the committee aligns with the latest developments of ClearVision and is backed by our subject expertise,” Yahav says. “Universal Avionics is also the first company to utilize the 50% operational credit allowed by the FAA. The FAA and EASA are also working together to define regulations for certifying AI, the same direction that Universal Avionics is moving towards with its upcoming avionics innovations.”

RTCA SC-213, which is harmonized with EUROCAE WG79, is expected to release two new Minimum Acceptable Performance Standards (MASPS) later this year: Document DO-407/ED-326 for Synthetic and Combined Vision Systems and DO-408/ED-327 for Enhanced Vision Systems. Thea Feyereisen is chair of the SVS/CVS document and Randy Bailey, NASA, is chair of the EFVS/EVS document. Both documents have been sent out to the industry for final review and comment and the comments are in the process of being dispositioned.

Once that review process is complete, the documents will be sent to RTCA and EUROCAE management for formal approval and release. “The great thing about these new documents is that they combine content from multiple previous documents that have been released over the past dozen-plus years into one, making it much easier for applicants to point to just one (or two) documents, rather than having to work through multiple documents to identify the requirements and compliance demonstration,” Feyereisen says.

Brown explains that he is seeing, “regulatory bodies around the world update their guidelines to include EFVS operations, which will help bring the benefits of this technology to more parts of the globe.”

EFVS Looks to the Future

EFVS is here to stay, and Brown believes its future is bright. “The benefits for safety and more efficient operations are clear, and we believe these benefits will compel more and more operators to select this feature.”

With the changing of airfield lighting from incandescent to LED, Feyereisen cautions the visual advantage previously afforded to EFVS will be lost. “Operators are looking toward vision systems that provide enhanced situation awareness gate-to-gate.”

He believes advanced SVS features like 3-D airport moving map and SVGS capabilities, including lowering the instrument segment for both ILS and LPV approaches, will see more attention and emphasis. “Operators will want these enhancements to both the Head Up Display (HUD) and head down display.”

Overall, Brown predicts, “More and more aircraft OEMs and operators will make this a requirement versus a ‘nice-to-have’ as they learn about and experience the benefits of EFVS. We will see new and better cameras and sensor integration, along with AI to improve the qualities and usability of the systems.”

“We believe that the commercial market will follow the military market, as is the case with many other emerging technologies,” Yahav says. “Pilots will be able to fly heads up in all phases of flight, taking advantage of this intuitive operational capability. As EFVS technology becomes more available and affordable for general aviation, helicopters and commercial airlines, it will no longer be seen as a luxury add-on feature that is nice to have. Enhanced vision will become integral as a baseline configuration requirement for airlines looking to maximize safety, boost productivity, and meet sustainability initiatives.” 

The post Enhanced Flight Vision Systems Today Into The Future appeared first on Avionics International.

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4 Airlines Share Their Perspectives on the IFC Market

With the arrival of the multi-orbit era and airlines making decisions on how they will use satellite connectivity going forward, the market for in-flight connectivity (IFC) has entered an exciting phase. The past year has seen a flurry of IFC deals with satellite operators as airlines invest in fleet upgrades, new aircraft, and passenger experience.

In this feature, rather than talking to the satellite community, Via Satellite spoke to four airlines about their next-generation connectivity plans and how they might invest in satellite to bring those plans into reality.

Alaska Airlines

Alaska Airlines is a major U.S. airline that carries over 44 million passengers a year. Like many airlines, it is keenly evaluating and assessing the market, as more satellite options become apparent. David Scotland, In-Flight Experience and Product Technology Director for Alaska Airlines, tells Via Satellite that while Starlink has the first mover advantage in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO), and the product is compelling, it doesn’t necessarily mean Starlink will dominate this market.

“We’ve seen this before with Gogo’s original air-to-ground (ATG) system and then Viasat HTS. Competitors catch up and sometimes eclipse the first mover. Starlink is new to IFC and we’ve seen a lot of maturity in how they approach airlines both from technical and business perspectives,” Scotland says. “I trust they’ll continue to mature over time and we’re eager to watch them evolve as they influence the whole industry to deliver better results for guests.”

For airlines, LEO has changed the dynamics of the market. Scotland says LEO is “incredibly appealing” for Alaska Airlines and that it is one of the reasons it decided to work with Intelsat’s hybrid LEO and Geostationary Orbit (GEO) regional jets, in a deal announced in January 2023.

In terms of what is next, Scotland adds, “We’re assessing options for portions of our mainline fleet now and choosing the right antenna technology is critical in our decision making. There’s a lot of development in this space, but few are in service today, so the jury is still out as to reliability.”

One of the key aspects to a successful IFC strategy is having the right equipment. Expanding on the topic of electronically steered antenna (ESA) technology, Scotland says, “ESAs are what we’ve all been wanting from the start. Their smaller size and lack of moving parts are compelling selling points. We’re going to install a first-generation system on our regional jets but we know second, and third-generation ESAs are only a few years off.”

He says Alaska Airlines is sensitive to how fast consumer technology evolves and supplier roadmaps need a view into upgradability. “Whether it’s a new wireless standard requiring a hardware upgrade, or new internet app driving demand for bandwidth to the aircraft and guest, this puts pressure on suppliers to be agile and offer upgrade paths with limited aircraft downtime,” Scotland adds.

How can the satellite industry improve its dealings with the airline community? Scotland says the answer is in transparency.

“One area where the [satellite] community could improve is in the provision of greater transparency into the quality of service offered in different geographies, on different days, and on different space assets,” he says. “This will be critical to understanding what our guests are actually getting in terms of experience. In turn, we can help operators plan for seasonal changes that could impact usage — whether it be due to guest demographics or flight schedules.”

In terms of where the market is going and what Alaska Airlines is influenced by, he says he is more interested in the IFC supplier side than the airline side. He cites some examples.

“On the airline front, Delta clearly disrupted the market with free, but IFC suppliers Intelsat and Anuvu have made huge strides in the past several years to upgrade their service. Intelsat was always good, but their network is even better now. Anuvu’s service on Southwest is a night and day difference from just a few years ago,” he says. “Additionally, Panasonic deserves credit for improving the most on the global scene. I’d say the most intriguing thing to me personally is the Airbus HBCPlus program. An agnostic antenna that we can shop service around with is extremely interesting.”

Iberia

Iberia is one of the largest European airlines and with nearly 170 aircraft in service and flights to almost 140 cities across the world. IFC has become a vital component of the airline’s strategy.

Iberia Director of Customer Experience Melanie Berry tells Via Satellite that the airline now has 95 percent of its fleet connected. Berry does not see LEO technology as a game-changer, and says antenna technology is more critical.

“I think the real ‘game changer’ will be agnostic antennas, because then we will have the same opportunity we do have at home. If we don’t like the option we have with option A, we go with option B,” she says. “We don’t have that right now. We make a commitment to an aircraft and it is the hardware that belongs with that provider. It is very cost-prohibitive [to change providers]. There is a lot of work to do on the aircraft. I think the development of agnostic antennas is going to give us all a lot more flexibility and a lot more choice, and maybe things will start to move a lot quicker once we get to this point.”

Iberia, like a number of airlines, has high expectations of the satellite industry. Berry is not the first to talk about more flexible antennas, but there are other challenges that she thinks airlines face. Berry says her biggest frustration and the thing that needs to change more than anything is how service level agreements (SLAs) are managed.

“In the past, it has been if there is a heartbeat to the aircraft, then the aircraft is connected, we are doing our job. My measure is — if nobody is connected, regardless if there is a heartbeat to the aircraft, there is a problem. We get lulled into a sense of security that is not correct. The reports will say the service level was 100 percent, so why couldn’t X percent of our customers connect? Antennas, yes, are an issue. We really need to rethink SLAs and that we are measuring the right things so we can improve things for the future.”

While better SLAs and agnostic antennas are part of Berry’s wishlist, the airline has made strong progress with its IFC strategy in recent times. She believes the future is about personalization and digitalization. In order to do this more effectively, Berry says the airline needs connected aircraft, crew, and suppliers. Interestingly, thanks to customer feedback, the airline is finding success using WhatsApp as a way of connecting with customers.

The airline has been using WhatsApp as a communication channel for customers since 2019. Berry describes it as a “work in progress,” but it’s a big part of the company’s personalization strategy.

“It is almost like a digital concierge. Customers can use WhatsApp to check in, obtain their boarding pass and receive flight notifications, among other options,” Berry says. “The feedback we have had is amazing. For me, one of the most rewarding moments was when I was walking in Madrid airport at 5 a.m., and this couple behind us, the man talked about the Iberia WhatsApp service. He wanted his wife to try it, as he thought it was fantastic.”

Despite a lot of consolidation and new players entering the market, Berry does not expect one player on the satellite side to dominate it. She says, “We have three different connectivity providers right now. All of them have made significant improvements over the last few years. We are continuing to work towards what that future looks like. I think Starlink is definitely interesting, but there are lots of interesting things going on in the market. I am not sure they [Starlink] will dominate it. I think there is room for everybody.”

However, in terms of what the next big decisions are for Iberia, it comes back to antennas. Berry says, “We are at a moment where we are trying to understand the life of antennas because we are starting to see a few more failing. So, like everything, there is a specific life. We are looking at when is the right moment to start thinking about changing them. Agnostic antennas aren’t quite there yet. How ready is the world for change?”

Icelandair

While Iceland may not be the biggest country in Europe, Icelandair has long been one of the pioneers in IFC, and has a fleet of just under 50 aircraft. Recently, the company decided to work with Viasat on the next phase of its IFC strategy.

Helga Huld Bjarnadottir, director of Customer Experience and Loyalty for Icelandair, tells Via Satellite the thinking behind choosing Viasat for its Wi-Fi services on all Icelandair 737 MAX aircraft. This deal was announced in March this year. Bjarnadottir recounts how the airline previously worked with Anuvu when it introduced Wi-Fi on the 757 fleet. When the company looked to equip its new Airbus fleet, she says they went through an evaluation of all options, including LEO providers like Starlink.

“In our assessment, we considered various factors such as cost, technological development, and bandwidth capabilities. Ultimately, we found that Viasat offered the best combination of performance, reliability, and cost-effectiveness for our needs,” she says.

Like many airlines, frustrations have come less from the service offerings from customers, and more from the potential to switch providers should the need arise. Bjarnadottir says, “When you have started a partnership with a Wi-Fi provider, it is a long-term relationship since the equipment is different between companies and it is complicated to replace. It is no easy task to move to another provider if you are unhappy with the services. The key is to do thorough research and pick a partner that shares your vision.”

Bjarnadottir believes the IFC market has been evolving with various trends shaping its landscape. From her perspective, she believes it is crucial for each airline to approach this market uniquely, considering their specific needs and objectives. Bjarnadottir talks of personalization standing out as a particular trend as airlines navigate how to effectively integrate it into their strategies. “The key question revolves around the extent to which personalization is incorporated and how it enhances the overall passenger experience. As the market continues to evolve, finding the right balance between innovation and personalized service will be essential for success,” she adds.

Icelandair’s primary focus is on ensuring the success of its business strategy in terms of its cost model, customer satisfaction, and delivering a seamless experience. It is consistently evaluating its strategy, seeking opportunities for improvement and development that would enhance ROI.

While Delta Air Lines made the choice to offer Wi-Fi for free, Bjarnadottir does not see Icelandair taking this same route.

“It’s certainly a noteworthy move. We’re carefully analyzing how this aligns with our own objectives and assessing its potential impact on ROI for Icelandair,” she says. “While we remain open to exploring all options, we don’t foresee immediate changes mirroring Delta’s approach.”

The airline’s focus has been primarily on ramping up its operations after the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. It has been working diligently to increase its flight schedules and return to sustainable operation levels. The airline is approaching delivery of brand-new Airbus A321 LRs later this year.

“We have been designing the interior as well as IFE and IFC systems that will offer even better customer experience,” Bjarnadottir says. “We have been working on ensuring consistency in IFC providers across our aircraft, with that we anticipate greater success and satisfaction among our passengers. This approach aligns with our commitment to providing a seamless and enhanced travel experience, further solidifying Icelandair’s position.”

Aeromexico

Via Satellite interviewed Aeromexico just over seven years ago when it was starting to ramp up its IFC plans. The Latin American airline was one of the early movers in the IFC space. The airline’s strategy right now is to have the entire fleet connected, including its regional aircraft, by the end of 2026, and to continue migrating to an experience that replicates the experience on the ground.

Alejandro Ochoa, In-Flight Technology manager for Aeromexico, believes LEO technology will be a game changer and will generate more competition, making overall costs more affordable and accessible to any passenger, “to the extent that it will be the standard of tomorrow as it is today to have a drink on board.”

He says Starlink could come to dominate the market with its technology and coverage. But, there are issues when looking to partner with a company like Starlink.

“They have frictionless connectivity, this means there is no portal. It could be an issue for some airlines such as Aeromexico, because we want to have contact with the passenger, in order to generate revenue and enhance the experience. This could be a major obstacle,” he says.

One of the main challenges for Aeromexico is to improve its coverage in Asia and South America, where the airline has some key routes. “This is something that the GEO satellite community has to improve, and in case there is no improvement in coverage, you have to look at a mix of LEO and GEO satellites.”

For example, some of Aeromexico’s most important and lucrative routes are to Japan, and South Korea and Ochoa admits there have been “issues” with the coverage. “Improving coverage is super important. It has been difficult to implement a successful Wi-Fi program due to certifications, regulations and technology,” he says.

Aeromexico currently offers free Wi-Fi to business class passengers on our 787 aircraft and is exploring other models, including sponsorship.

Ochoa says the largest challenge is getting the infrastructure in place. “We have had different providers. We need to make sure we can provide a seamless experience between different providers. We know that connectivity is a differentiator in the aviation industry,” he says.

Ochoa is optimistic about the overall state of the IFC market. He believes it is set for robust growth, fueled by technological advancements, rising passenger demand, and strategic industry collaborations. The adoption of satellite-based solutions, particularly LEO and hybrid GEO and LEO satellite constellations, is enhancing connectivity quality and reliability.

“As airlines increasingly view in-flight connectivity as a competitive advantage and a potential revenue stream, they are exploring various business models, including freemium and sponsored services,” he says. “Overall, the IFC market’s future looks promising, with continuous innovation and expansion.”

A version of this story originally appeared in affiliate publication Via Satellite.

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Lockheed Martin Awarded $5.1 Billion in F-35 Contracts

Lockheed Martin is receiving $5.1 billion in three contracts for the F-35 Lightning II fighter, including Block 4 related upgrades, DoD said on Aug. 28.

The largest contract–$3.9 billion through September 2028–is for “training system and simulation design, development, integration, test, production, deployment, modifications/upgrades, and sustainment,” the Pentagon said.

Lockheed Martin is to perform 60 percent of the work at its Missiles and Fire Control business in Orlando, Fla.; 30 percent in Fort Worth, Texas–the location of the company’s F-35 plant; and 10 percent outside the United States.

Orlando makes the F-35’s electro-optical targeting system (EOTS), which the F-35 program reported in 2022 was wearing out more quickly than foreseen.

In a May report, the Government Accountability Office said that the F-35 program reported that the EOTS window “does not meet requirements when operating in certain environments—like those with high amounts of sand and dust.”

“The program office is using recurring inspections to mitigate the issue…and the program completed testing and fielded new equipment in 2024, according to program officials,” GAO said. “The program is also working with Lockheed Martin and its window suppliers to improve window durability and expects to qualify a new window in 2024.”

For Block 4 jets, Lockheed Martin has proposed Advanced EOTS, which is to have short-wave infrared and high-definition television upgrades, an infrared marker and improved image detector resolution.

“These enhancements increase F-35 pilots’ recognition and detection ranges, enabling greater overall targeting performance,” the company has said.

The second Aug. 28 F-35 award, a more than $1 billion contract modification, was for “continued engineering, maintenance, logistics, manpower, and material support” for F-35 development labs and flight testing, and other parts, cyber, software, and foreign military sales’ support.

The developmental labs and flight tests “are critical” to Block 4, the F-35 program said.

The third Aug. 28 F-35 award–$194 million–is to support “the initial depot capability of site activation and material for repairs capabilities at military service depot locations across the U.S.,” DoD said.

The F-35 Joint Program Office (JPO) said on Aug. 29 that the latter contract is for two activities–the first “to support the initial activation of depot repair for the first increment of Block 4 capability, which is on time and slated for 2030.”

“The second part is to provide additional materials to already activated depots currently supporting the F-35 enterprise,” the F-35 JPO said.

A version of this story originally appeared in affiliate publication Defense Daily.

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USAF Awards RTX F-22 Sensor Upgrade Contract Possibly Worth More Than $1 Billion

While the U.S. Air Force’s manned Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter has an uncertain future, the service is moving forward with upgrading sensors on the Lockheed Martin F-22.

On Aug. 29, the Air Force said that it has awarded RTX‘s Raytheon a contract that could be worth more than $1 billion to upgrade sensors for the F-22.

“Work will be performed in McKinney, Texas, and is expected to be completed by May 8, 2029,” according to a DoD contracts announcement.

The Air Force plans to retire its older, 32 Block 20 F-22s, but is undertaking a program to upgrade the remaining 154 F-22 Raptors with new cryptography, an expanded open architecture, new weapons, an infrared search and track sensor, and a “Project Keystone” effort to install an advanced threat warning receiver.

The program is to cost more than $4.3 billion between fiscal 2023 and 2029.

“The F-22 team is working really hard on executing a modernization roadmap to field advanced sensors, connectivity, weapons and other capabilities that are relevant to the INDOPACOM theater,” Air Force Brig. Gen. Jason Voorheis, the program executive officer for fighters and advanced aircraft, said last month.

“The Raptor team recently conducted six flight test efforts to demo and assess advanced sensors on the F-22 required to complete an ongoing rapid prototyping MTA for the program,” he said. “That will lead to a decision on the rapid fielding MTA in the near future.”

MTA refers to Middle Tier of Acquisition, which is also a reference to rapid prototyping.

A version of this story originally appeared in affiliate publication Defense Daily.

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If Industry Reaches Price Point for Unmanned Autonomous Fighter, ‘I’ll Be Asking for It,’ LaPlante Says

While the U.S. Air Force has not disclosed what its leaders are discussing on the future or lack thereof of the manned Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter, DoD acquisition chief William LaPlante is opening the door to its replacement by unmanned, autonomous drones.

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has estimated the unit cost of the manned NGAD to be several hundred million dollars and the unit cost of accompanying, unmanned Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) to be about one-third that of the Lockheed Martin F-35.

“If you can produce something at a price point [that’s] a third of the F-35 that will work effectively without the man being able to be in it, I’ll be asking for it so it really depends on how this whole concept flows together,” LaPlante told reporters on Aug. 7 at NDIA’s emerging technologies for defense conference in Washington, D.C. “It’s not really a technology issue. It’s more of a CONOPs and expense issue.”

Such a CCA unit cost goal would be about $30 million.

The Air Force has kept most NGAD/CCA work details under wraps as “classified.”

A key question will be whether an unmanned NGAD will be able to execute complex missions. Air Force leaders have said that CCAs may focus on one mission and that the first will be air-to-air.

Kendall has said that preparing the Air Force’s fiscal 2026 program objective memorandum was a heavy lift, due to big ticket items, including the Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider future stealth bomber, NGAD/CCA, and a Nunn-McCurdy breach on the Northrop Grumman LGM-35A Sentinel future ICBM.

“What we keep hearing from inside the Air Force at very high levels is that the threat environment has evolved significantly, particularly in the last year and a half or so,” the Teal Group said last month on manned NGAD in a letter to readers of the group’s World Military & Civil Aircraft Briefing. “So, the airframe they thought they wanted, essentially a big fighter, may not be adequate to today’s task. The NGAD airframe contractors built good responses to the specifications they were given. But the Air Force is deciding if those are really the specifications they’re going to need going forward. They’ve had that Roy Scheider moment when he saw the size of the shark and said you’re going to need a bigger boat.”

Cost, however, may prevent the Air Force from moving forward on a bigger manned NGAD design.

But, as LaPlante suggested, drones may not be the panacea.

“Removing the pilot from an aircraft design and the associated necessary equipment has (in principle) the potential to reduce the costs of an aircraft, but it is no guarantee the aircraft will be cheap,” according to a new Center for Strategic and International Studies study on CCA. “The Global Hawk drone, for example, has a unit cost that can be $130 million or higher, mostly because of the exquisite sensor payloads it carries and the low production volume.”

In addition, advocates of a manned NGAD have pointed to recent drone losses in Ukraine and the Middle East–drones either disabled by electronic warfare or shot down.

In April, the Air Force said that it had chosen privately-held drone makers, General Atomics and Anduril, to build air vehicles in the first round of CCA. The companies beat defense industry heavyweights Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman, though these companies and others are free to bid on future CCA increments.

The Air Force said last week that it recently awarded classified contracts to five vendors–a mix of traditional defense companies and non-marquee ones–for the autonomy piece of CCA.

A version of this story originally appeared in affiliate publication Defense Daily.

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